Source: CHEAA
China’s economic performance in the first half of 2025 remained broadly stable. On the domestic front, the downturn in the real estate sector and weak consumer sentiment continued to weigh on home appliance demand, but the nationwide “trade-in” program helped keep the market steady. Externally, although uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies, faster supply-chain restructuring, geopolitical tensions, and greater commodity-price volatility created headwinds, China’s home appliance exports still showed solid resilience.
In the first half of 2025, the nationwide “trade-in” program became a key driver of home appliance consumption, helping the industry maintain steady growth and demonstrating its resilience. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s home appliance sector generated 1.17 trillion yuan in revenue from January to July, up 4.8% year on year, while total profits reached 90.4 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3%.
In the first half of 2025, the “trade-in” policy became a major engine for unlocking China’s home appliance consumption potential. Thanks to the industry’s strong resilience, the sector achieved steady growth throughout the period, fully demonstrating its underlying strength.
Tracking data from 65 listed home appliance companies shows that industry-wide revenue grew faster than profits. With the exception of kitchen appliances, all sub-sectors recorded positive revenue growth in the second quarter of 2025, with performance ranking as follows: components > small appliances > consumer electronics (black goods) > major appliances (white goods) > kitchen appliances. On the profit side, components, black goods, and white goods all posted positive growth. The profitability ranking was: components > black goods > white goods > kitchen appliances > small appliances.
In the first half of 2025, the ongoing economic recovery in China and manufacturers’ proactive efforts to secure export orders helped drive a noticeable rebound in shipments of major home appliance categories. Production and shipments of white goods saw solid gains, while tariff-related pressures caused a modest decline in export orders and shipments for many small appliances.
From January to July 2025, China’s home appliance market regained momentum under the combined influence of supportive policies and shifting consumer preferences. The “trade-in” program continued to play a central role—accelerating the phase-out of outdated products and expanding market space for energy-efficient, environmentally friendly models. According to AVC’s retail data, China’s home appliance retail sales reached 539 billion yuan from January to July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%.
From an industry cycle perspective, appliance ownership in China is approaching saturation, and the market—especially for traditional categories—has fully entered a replacement-driven phase. Once market scale growth stalls, competition around product specifications and pricing intensifies, becoming a hidden challenge for the industry. Overcoming this requires continuous product innovation to open new growth areas and support higher-quality development. Looking ahead to 2026, challenges are expected to grow, and companies will need to pursue breakthroughs in consumer insight, differentiated innovation, ecosystem development, and scenario-based solutions to create value through innovation.
In 2025, global economic growth remained low, with widening disparities across major economies. Against the backdrop of U.S. tariff policies under the Trump administration, slower global disinflation and Fed rate cuts, accelerated supply chain restructuring, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and increased commodity price volatility, global trade uncertainty has risen significantly. Despite these challenges, China’s home appliance exports have remained resilient, continuing the growth trend seen since August 2023. From January to July 2025, China’s home appliance exports totaled US$68.49 billion, up 3.7% year on year, while imports fell 11.6% to US$1.7 billion, marking four consecutive years of decline. The trade surplus reached US$66.79 billion, an increase of 4.2%.
In the first half of 2025, despite the combined impact of heightened U.S. tariff pressures and domestic challenges, China’s major economic indicators slowed but remained broadly stable. The expanded “trade-in” program strengthened support for consumer goods, while export markets, though under pressure, continued to show resilience. According to a survey of its member companies by the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, most companies hold cautious expectations for the second half of the year. While the “trade-in” policy is expected to provide some market support, weak domestic consumption and demand remain key concerns, and high global trade uncertainty will add further pressure. Given the relatively high base of the domestic retail market in late 2024, China’s home appliance retail sales are likely to remain positive in 2025 under policy support, though growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year.
On the export front, China’s home appliance sector showed resilience in the first half of 2025 despite uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies. But the challenges are expected to intensify in the second half. From a base-effect perspective, 2024 was an exceptionally strong export year, creating significant pressure for further growth in 2025. From a supply-and-demand standpoint, the rollout of new U.S. trade measures—including “reciprocal tariffs,” a 40% transshipment tariff, and Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs—along with faster overseas capacity expansion, slower disinflation abroad, earlier front-loaded shipments, rising prices, and the appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar, will all weigh on export performance.
Notably, several factors will continue to support the resilience of China’s home appliance exports in the near to medium term. These include more diversified export markets, renminbi depreciation against multiple currencies, a period of relative stability in China–U.S. trade talks, low commodity prices, China’s competitive advantage in both its integrated supply chain and product cost-performance, relatively low overseas inventory levels, the ongoing expansion of cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses, and rising competitive pressure at home pushing firms to accelerate their global expansion. Over the longer term, as parallel supply chains develop overseas, Chinese home appliance companies will need to stay committed to globalization—deepening integration into global value chains, strengthening localized capabilities across the full value chain, and enhancing their position within global supply networks. At the same time, firms must shift away from price-driven export strategies and move up the global value chain to build more resilient and sustainable advantages in overseas markets.